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- November 13, 2024
November 13, 2024
The Grind Newsletter
🫵 Welcome to wild Wednesday!
Today's business news 🔥
🎧 Pod of the day: Think like an owner: This Build Series features Kush Das, CEO of Ennable Care who talks profitable, sustainable growth, and shares how to at look at ROI internally to remain profitable. More capital deployment discussions for a growing business.
TECH TODAY
Conflix a medical SaaS AI company working to keep health care companies on the right side of compliance and reduce practice risks announced a $4.2 million seed round Co-led by Lerer Hippeau (the fund founded by BuzzFeed’s former chairman Keneth Lerer) and Origin Ventures, with Mark VC, Springtime Ventures, and pre-seed investors Cretiv Capital participating.
TikTok Banned In Canada The Canadian government ordered the closure of TikTok’s Vancouver and Toronto offices siting national security concerns. The government had previously banned TikTok from government phones. TikTok employees not citizens will need to leave the country. Though Canadian users can continue to use TikTok 🤔
Yelp The trusted peer review website disclosed today in its earnings call the acquisition of auto repair service platform RepairPal. Yelp reported the acquisition cost the company $80 million in cash
HEADLINE NEWS 👀
President elect Trump is naming people to his administration faster than we can type. Here’s what we know as of today:
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Tom Homan, Border Czar
Susie Wiles, Chief of Staff
Stephan Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy
Elise Stefanik, Ambassador to the United Nations
Lee Zeldin, Environmental Protection Agency
Michael Waltz, National Security Advisor
Mike Huckabee, U.S. Ambassador to Israel
Elon Musk, Co-lead, Department of Government Efficiency
Vivek Ramaswamy, Co-lead, Department of Government Efficiency
Trump And Tech The Second Act
Trump meeting with tech elite 2017. Credit: BBC
Prior to former President Trump’s first term, the equivalent of the Magnificent Seven tech companies were invited to meet with him in his Manhattan office. During this meeting he told them “I’m here to help you folks do well”.
That’s not exactly how it worked out.
Apple, Amazon, X (then Twitter) Google, and Meta (then Facebook) were assaulted by regulators. Twitter was accused of censorship, laughable post 2024 election. The regulators filed and pursued antitrust charges against both Google and Meta.
Memorable was congressional leaders grilling the tech elite. Only for a Republican led coalition to wag a finger for public display.
Now, as President elect, Trump is about to start a second term and leaders in tech don’t know what to expect.
An unofficial announcement announced Elon Musk will join Trump in an unknown role. Musk is one of tech’s most venerable proponents. (In an announcement just prior to publication President elect Trump announced Musk will Co-lead with Vivek Ramaswami the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge).
The role is said to include streamlining government and deregulating industry. Exactly which industries and how this stream will work is yet to be seen.
There is speculation by some on the left a second Trump administration may elect to reverse the CHIPS and Science Act, a bipartisan bill signed into law by President Biden. If legislation is enacted to reverse this act the tech industry could be put under pressure to find ways to keep up with the demand AI is creating for microprocessor chips.
The consumer ultimately will end up absorbing the cost through higher prices at the register. Let us hope a second Trump term is friendlier to tech than his first term.
Luxury Retail Signaling An Economic Slowdown?
S&P Global Luxury Index (chart 1.)
Slowing luxury goods sales are watched for signals about the greater overall economy. When luxury goods sales slow it can mean consumer confidence is reduced or consumers perceive an economic slowdown may be eminent.
The S&P Global Luxury Index, a measure of the 80 largest publicly traded luxury goods companies, is down -6.13% year to date (see chart 1.) Could this be a sign of waining consumer confidence?
The index is widely tracked by investors and analysts who use it as a tool to track the luxury industry.
With luxury goods prices rising by more than 60% since the beginning of the Covid19 pandemic consumers could have developed a sense of sticker shock. With price leaps of this magnitude, and the luxury index in negative territory this year could mean grey skies are on the horizon for the U.S. economy.
The U.S. Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics is schedule to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. And will release the U.S. Import and Export Price Index later in the week. Combined these indexes could provide insight into the health of the U.S. economy heading into the holiday season.
FEDEX And UPS Slug It Out Over Small Business
UPS and FEDEX trucks. Credit Getty Images
FedEx and UPS are courting small business as shipping volume is expected to decline this year after peaking during the Covid19 pandemic.
With Thanksgiving falling later in November black Friday is pushed back and shipping carriers will have to scramble to ship more parcels during the peak shipping period in less time.
With shippers already under immense pressure ground parcel shipping rates have declined 2.5% during last quarter, according to AFS Logistics, a third party logistics company.
This comes at a precarious time for both carriers as they have independently announced expected revenue reductions. Additionally, the carriers laid off tens of thousands of workers over the last several years.
An unlikely competitor isn’t making the situation any easier. The U.S. postal service in recent years has inserted itself as a reputable ground shipping alternative during the peak holiday period. USPS customers have confirmed they are shipping product to customers through the USPS system because of a lower cost to ship.
Will Bitcoin Blast 🚀 Off In Trump’s Second Term?
Crypto has once again found its groove. The price of Bitcoin exceeded $90,000 before The Grind’s publishing deadline. The market seems to have found a new surge of optimism in the reelection of former President Trump.
The Grind reported last week the Crypto industry had a significant influence on the 2024 election results. The industry threw a revised $170 million in total towards supporting candidates with Crypto friendly agendas.
One of the candidates benefiting from this support was Senate elect Bernie Moreno a known proponent of Crypto. Reports have said Mr Moreno was a principal in a blockchain company prior to the election. Moreno narrowly beat three term Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown. Senator Brown is known as a stalwart critic of Crypto.
During his campaign President elect Trump vowed to lessen the regulatory burden placed on Crypto sparking interest from the elite within the Crypto industry. In addition, Trump has said he would create a national Crypto reserve to hold the United States Bitcoin supply. Since the election these statements have supported a 40% rise in Bitcoin price.
With the election now over the Crypto industry will be looking for signs Trump intends to live up to his promises by building a cache of Crypto in a national reserve. Crypto industry executives will also be on the lookout for new rules friendlier for Crypto that bifurcate from how Wall Street is regulated by its regulators. Hang on for the ride 🧑🚀
Crypto Influence On 2024 Election
The Crypto industry had a significant impact on the 2024 election. Exerting financial influence, the industry poured $120 million into the election cycle in support of pro-Crypto candidates.
Former President Donald Trump, now President elect after winning the election, expressed strong support for Crypto currencies during his bid for a second Presidential term. And the Crypto industry through its support may have aide his victory. The wins of other pro-Crypto candidates may have been aided by this support.
With 50 million Americans owning some form of Crypto the Crypto industry’s involvement in the 2024 election may position it to potentially shape the future of U.S. financial regulation and more elections moving forward.
Will Bitcoin get to $100,000 before year end? That’s a question on investors minds but if Trump engages in Bitcoin friendly policies the price of Bitcoin can rise higher.
ECONOMY
Credit: Federal Reserve - Karl Russell
The Fed slashed interest rates yesterday by 0.25% for the second time this year. The cut is the latest sign the Fed believes inflation is nearing its key target rate of 2%.
A new Trump financial policy muddies the waters if any of the policy items discussed on the campaign trail get implement into policy. This brings to light the “economy stands on the brink of change” comments.
Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Thursday commented while addressing the press Fed officials would watch the economic data closely before the final decision is made on a final rate cut at its December 2024 meeting.
El-Erian Talks Economy On Face The Nation
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, talked jobs and economy on Face The Nation. The Jobs report released last Friday indicated jobs stalled in October. The distortion in the report he attributed to hurricanes and employee strikes but El-Erian also mentioned “we have an economy that has been growing robustly, (and) inflation is coming down”. Adding “the main challenge for the next administration is “to continue to position it for the engine of tomorrow’s prosperity”.
When asked when people will see grocery prices and the cost of housing come down El-Erian commented “it’s not going to happen”.
The FED began adjusted interest rates higher to fend off an over expanding economy beginning in 2022, the fallout from these rate move are higher costs for goods and services for households and businesses. Americans have seen these higher costs at the cash register and in borrowing costs, and rightly want to know when these increases costs will start to go down. As the process is reversed and the FED reduces interest rates, as it did in September, it generally has a tendency with some variance to drag inflation down along with it.
The danger for our national economy as El-Erian mentions is the national debt. The U.S. “debt to GDP is 120%”. For all us non-math folk that means for every $10 earned the U.S. borrows and spends $2 extra dollars or 20% more. That math just doesn’t math, and El-Erian went on to say the candidate that occupies the Whitehouse “like it or not are going to have to find a way to moderate deficits and debt”.
Bluesky Left Of X
Bluesky a decentralized social media platform raked in nearly 700,000 new users over the Veterans weekend.
The new users are migrating to the platform after an abrupt partisan direction taking place on Elon Musk’s X.com (formerly Twitter) social media platform. X users saw a candid uptick in partisan conservative politics across the platform prior to the election. Many dedicated long term users of X who do not align with the onslaught are electing to migrate away from the platform.
SHORT, SHORT BUSINESS STORIES
Evergreen, a myth of the forever rising sun. (The unintended liability)
🧠 WORD OF THE DAY
ARBITRAGE
A risky financial strategy motivated by a price differential in given assets; speculation of price change between two or more markets or from one time period to another. A necessary finance tool to keep markets in balance.
THE GRIND FACTORY ⚙️
Family Office Capital
Family offices are known to be opaque entities seldom seen in the public domain and rarely heard about as a source of investment capital. For Small Businesses seeking investment capital Family Offices (“FO”) could be a viable source of private investment capital.
Shielded by a labyrinth of private entities masking investments FO’s can be difficult to find. FO experts agree the best way to attract an FO investment is to find a point of alignment with the industry that created the FO’s wealth and or companies they are known to have a substantial investment interest. Family Offices can be more flexible than banks, private equity, and venture capitalists. When pitching an FO it is recommended by insiders that the pitch is based on projections based on known metrics instead of pi in the sky dreams and aspirations.
📚 BOOK OF THE WEEK
Credit: Goodreads
Nike is widely known worldwide. The man behind Nike not so much. In this memoir Phil Knight shares the behind the scenes story of the company from a pesky little startup to one of the most iconic companies of its time. If you like business you’ll love this read. Shoe Dog has 4.7⭐️ rating on goodreads.
REAL ESTATE CORNER
Blackstone To Take Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (Nasdaq: ROIC) Private For $4 Billion
The companies announced last week a definative agreement was reached wherein “Blackstone Real Estate Partners X will acquire all outstanding common shares of ROIC for $17.50 per share in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $4 bilion, including outstanding debt.
ROIC’s portfolio consists of 93 high-quality, grocery anchored retail properties totlaing 10.5 million square feet concentrated in Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, and Portland”.
The purchase price represents a 34% premium over the last trading day prior to the announcement on July 29, 2024.
Jacob Werner, Co-Head of Americas Acquisition at Blackstone Real Estate, said, “This transaction reflects our strong conviction in necessity based, grocery anchored shopping centers in densely populated geographies. The sector is experiencing accelerating fundamentals, benefiting from nearly a decade of virtual no new construction, while demand for brick and mortar grocery staores, restarants, fitness and other lifestyle retailers remains healthy. We are pleased to be acquiring ROIC, which owns a unique collection of high quality assets in some of the most desirable West Coast markets.”
The transaction is scheduled to close first quarter 2025.
UNIQUELY INTERESTING
💡 Epiphany Moments
Daylight Savings Rescue: With the days now running shorter after the time change here are ways to stay fit, sharp, and sane.
Get out in the sunlight. Mornings will help regulate mood.
Get into a good sleep schedule. Sleep will help keep your body in sync.
Stay active. Boosts mood and energy.
Eat well. Eat a healthy diet.
Stay connected to friends and family.
Relax. Keep stress to a minimum.
Shelve electronic devices at least 30 minutes before bed.
Nest well. Create a cozy personal living space.
Light therapy. Void of natural sunlight use light therapy as a replacement.
Dial a friend, a family member, or a professional if help is needed. Don’t hesitate
🍎 One Smart Apple
Fred Smith, Founder of FedEx unable to make payroll in the early days of FedEx reportedly saved the company by taking the company’s total remaining cash of $5,000 late on a late Friday afternoon and boarded a plane bound for Las Vegas. As the story goes he returned Monday morning with enough cash to make payroll.
Despite early financial struggles Smith had a pivotal moment when he realized the company would be a success. The moment came when he saw the potential of his hub and spoke system the empowered efficient overnight delivery.
Smith’s vision for FedEx was gained as a charter pilot and during his time at Yale. He could foresee the need for fast reliable delivery services in a computer driven world.
HEALTH & LONGEVITY
Fitness Hack For Longevity: HIIT
HIIT workout. Credit: Sunny Health Fitness
High intensity interval training (HIIT) is short bursts of high intensity workouts.
HIIT programs are designed as a series of exercise movements the athlete moves through with short rest periods or onto lighter exercises. Incorporating a HIIT program into a fitness routine can significantly improve cardiovascular health, boost metabolism, help improve endocrine system function, and enhance overall fitness.
Research has shown HIIT can increase VO2 Max which is a key ingredient to longevity. Plus, who doesn’t like to look good in a birthday suit in front of the mirror.
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SOCIAL MEDIA