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- December 5, 2024
December 5, 2024
The Grind Newsletter
🍻 Definitely Thirsty Thursday
Small Business News || The Business World in 5 minutes or less
🎧 YT/Pod of the day: Angels, Exits & Acquisitions: In this episode find out ways to add key executives and personnel WITHOUT giving away equity but making a compelling offers to the right people who can ignite enterprise value.
FURTHER DOWN… 🔻 🔻🔻
THE GRIND FACTORY 👉️Digital Marketing Series
TECH TODAY
Bitcoin Exceeds Six Figures: Bitcoin reached $103,992.99 Wednesday evening.
Amazon Announces Supercomputer: New Server Powered by Homegrown AI Chips
Salesforce’s AgentForce: Salesforce’s Marc Benioff thinks he’s found the realm of “digital labor” in its newest released AI agent.
Run Roku Ads Through Black Friday The Holidays 🎄
2025 Prediction: A Surge of Self-Serve CTV Buyers
Roku predicts that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for self-serve CTV advertising. Roku Ads Manager makes it easy to integrate CTV into your 2025 marketing mix. Easily segment your target audience, optimize campaigns in real-time, and drive conversions with interactive ad formats and shoppable ads with a Shopify integration. Roku Ads Manager makes CTV advertising accessible and impactful for businesses of any size.
🎁🎅🎎🪔🧑🎄🤶🎄 The Holidays 🎁🎅🎎🪔🧑🎄🤶🎄 The Holidays
SMALL BUSINESS BREAKING NEWS
Corporate Transparency Act (CTA)
12/4/24 Update: A federal court has halted the implementation of the Corporate Transparency Act’s beneficial ownership reporting requirements. This will remain in effect until the conclusion of legal proceedings. As of this update, businesses are not required to comply with the reporting requirements.
The Corporate Transparency Act that went into effect January 1, 2024 was designed to combat money laundering and illicit illegal activities by requiring businesses to report beneficial ownership information to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FenCEN).
The CTA required small businesses to disclose personal information about their owners that included names, addresses, and identification numbers.
Compliance required businesses to meet the reporting guidelines and submit the required information no later than January 1, 2025 or face steep penalties.
HEADLINE NEWS 👀
Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras Tour Book’ Nonfiction Sensation
Credit: Taylor Swift
Swifties revel in holiday 🎄merch. Taylor Swift has added another accolade to her record-breaking year as her self-published The Eras Tour Book became one of the highest-selling nonfiction debuts ever.
Exclusive to Target, the book launched in stores on Black Friday and online the following day, selling 814,000 print copies in its first week, according to Circana BookScan. This makes it the second-best debut for adult nonfiction in BookScan’s history, trailing only former President Barack Obama’s A Promised Land, which sold 816,300 copies in its 2020 launch.
Swift’s 256-page book is sold exclusively through Target for $39.99. The book features over 500 images, including costume sketches and behind-the-scenes rehearsal photos.
Despite its commercial success, The Eras Tour Book has drawn criticism from fans, who took to social media to complain about typos and design issues, such as photos that disappear into the page creases.
Expectations remain high for the book. According to a source familiar with the release, the first print run was two million copies. By comparison, the bestselling book of 2023, Colleen Hoover’s It Ends with Us, sold nearly 1.3 million print copies throughout the year, BookScan reports.
Target, which has not commented on the book’s release, appears to have secured another retail win through its partnership with Swift. As her devoted fanbase continues to fuel her success across industries, The Eras Tour Book is positioned to remain a blockbuster hit this holiday season.
High End Clothiers Retail Holiday Sales Slow
Credit: Tommy Hilfinger
Retail Giants PVH and American Eagle Lower Holiday Sales Outlook Amid Consumer Slowdown
Retailers PVH Corp. and American Eagle Outfitters are facing a challenging holiday season as both companies lowered their sales outlooks due to weak consumer demand and shifting spending priorities.
PVH Corp. Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger Underperform
PVH Corp., the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, issued a disappointing holiday-quarter forecast, predicting a 6%-7% drop in sales—greater than the 4.5% decline analysts had expected, according to FactSet. The company also slashed its fourth-quarter profit guidance, with earnings per share projected between $2.83 and $2.98, below analysts' expectations of $3.69.
The downbeat outlook comes despite third-quarter earnings that exceeded forecasts. Adjusted earnings of $3.03 per share topped analysts' expectations of $2.59, while revenue of $2.26 billion beat estimates of $2.22 billion. However, revenue still declined 5% year-over-year, with North American sales for Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger falling 6%. Wholesale revenue dropped 8%, while direct-to-consumer sales remained flat.
CEO Stefan Larsson attributed the slump to weakening consumer demand and foreign currency pressures, which are expected to dent annual earnings by 15 cents per share. Inventory levels were 9% higher than last year, partly due to early receipts for the holiday season.
Analysts suggest the slowdown in PVH’s core brands could persist, as economic uncertainty and subdued consumer sentiment weigh on discretionary spending. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of a 6%-7% decline, matching analysts’ expectations of $8.62 billion.
American Eagle Outfitters: Budget-Conscious Shoppers and Restructuring Woes
American Eagle Outfitters also trimmed its annual sales forecast, citing weaker-than-anticipated holiday-quarter performance. The company now expects same-store sales to rise 3% for the year, down from an earlier forecast of 4%. Total revenue is projected to grow by just 1%, compared to a prior estimate of up to 3%.
For the holiday quarter, American Eagle predicts a 4% revenue decline, worse than analysts' estimates of a 1.1% drop. Shares plunged 12% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor concerns over the challenging retail environment.
Despite a solid back-to-school season, third-quarter revenue fell 1% to $1.29 billion, missing analysts' expectations of $1.3 billion. The company’s profit also declined to $80 million, or 41 cents per share, from $96.7 million, or 49 cents per share, in the same period last year. American Eagle incurred an $18 million restructuring charge as it streamlined operations and shifted its Hong Kong retail business to a licensing model.
CEO Jay Schottenstein noted that while the company is entering the holiday season in a strong inventory position, demand outside peak shopping periods remains uncertain. Analysts expect continued sales volatility as budget-conscious consumers prioritize essential purchases over apparel.
Analysts Predict Prolonged Challenges for Retailers
Both PVH and American Eagle face headwinds as inflation and economic uncertainty weigh on discretionary spending. Analysts warn that sluggish consumer demand and global economic pressures could prolong the sales downturn into 2024. Retailers are also grappling with inventory management challenges, making it difficult to predict whether promotional efforts will drive a rebound during the critical holiday season.
As budget-minded shoppers tighten their wallets, the pressure is mounting on brands like Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, and American Eagle to navigate a retail landscape marked by cautious spending and tepid consumer sentiment.
Bubbly Water Maker Nears Sale
Credit: Spindrift Beverage
Spindrift Beverage is in talks to be sold to Gryphon Investors, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Gryphon is a San Francisco based investor in consumer products and services.
According to the WSJ report the fruit juice, low calorie, low sugar drink maker could be valued at $650 million with a deal announcement anticipated before year end. Spindrift is reported to have annual earnings of $25 million before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Chipotle Raises Prices Offsetting Higher Costs
Chipotle Mexican Grill on Monday said it is raising prices by 2% to offset the rising costs of inflation. Like many other food service companies the chain has seen beef, dairy, and avocado costs rise this year.
Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) shares rose on the news up 4.5% to $63.67 after analysts reports that prices increases had gone into effect.
Analysts predict the increased prices will enhance Chipotle’s future earnings.
UnitedHealthCare CEO Gunned Down In Manhattan
Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealthCare was shot and killed outside a Manhattan hotel as he was making way towards the company’s annual investor conference.
A manhunt is active as of Wednesday morning for the shooter. No motive for the shooting is presently known.
ECONOMY
Fed Signals Slower Rate Cuts Economy Resilient
CREDIT: CLAUDIO BRESCIANI/ TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested a more cautious approach to rate cuts, citing a stronger-than-expected economy. The Fed has reduced rates at its last two meetings, including a quarter-point cut in November to a range of 4.5%-4.75%.
Investors widely anticipate another quarter-point cut at the December 17-18 meeting, with futures markets pricing in a 75% likelihood. Powell, however, emphasized the need for caution as the Fed seeks a “neutral” rate that neither spurs nor slows growth.
Inflation has moderated but remains uneven, with core prices rising 2.8% in October—above the Fed’s 2% target. Upcoming employment and inflation reports will guide the Fed’s decision.
Powell also refrained from speculating on the economic impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, including potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could add uncertainty to the outlook.
China Tariffs
On China, the President elect accused China of not doing enough to stop drugs flowing into the U.S. through the Mexican boarders. “Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America,” Trump said.
The Chinese embassy hit back.
“China believes that China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature. No one will win a trade war or a tariff war.”
Economists say Trump’s overall tariff plans, likely his most consequential economic policy, would push U.S. import duty rates back up to 1930-era levels, stoke inflation, collapse U.S.-China trade, draw retaliation and drastically reorder supply chains.
They say tariff’s are typically paid by the importing company, and they either pass the tariff on to the consumer or absorb the tariff accepting lower profits.
Protecting Against Inflation
Protecting the economy against inflation is a known commodity. Limit supply shocks, and buy commodities. But with a new Administration entering the Whitehouse and threatening to cut taxes and issue widespread tariffs on imported goods it might be difficult to default to the known inflation fighters to keep inflation at bay.
Problems are already appearing post election as commodity prices are depressed leaving a looming question if the old tried and true inflation fighters have lost their edge?
FINANCE
Scotts Miracle Gro Management Shakeup
Scotts Miracle Grow CFO, Matt Garth, will exit the world largest producer of branded lawn and garden products at the end of 2024 in an abrupt ending as the company looks towards the next phase of its growth strategy.
The company also announced the two executive advancements to help fill the void until a permanent replacement is found for the CFO role.
POLITICS
Paul Atkins Tapped To Run SEC
Credit: Getty Images North America
Trump Names Paul Atkins as SEC Pick, Signaling Regulatory Shift
WASHINGTON—President-elect Donald Trump has selected Paul Atkins, a conservative lawyer and regulatory skeptic, to lead the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking a likely pivot in the agency’s enforcement and regulatory strategies.
Atkins, a former SEC commissioner during the Bush administration, is known for opposing regulations he deemed burdensome. If confirmed, he is expected to scale back enforcement and revise policies introduced under current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, while maintaining core investor protections.
“Paul is a proven leader for common-sense regulations,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, adding that Atkins understands the importance of digital assets in fostering innovation.
Atkins has criticized the SEC’s aggressive crackdown on cryptocurrency firms during the Biden administration, arguing that rigid oversight pushed crypto innovation overseas. As head of consulting firm Patomak Global Partners, Atkins advised crypto firms, including the now-defunct FTX, which collapsed in 2022 amidst a high-profile fraud scandal.
This appointment aligns with Trump’s broader plan to streamline federal agencies, an effort led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy under the newly created Department of Government Efficiency.
Trump also announced Gail Slater as head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, signaling continued scrutiny of Big Tech while aiming to protect smaller competitors.
Atkins’s track record suggests a shift away from hefty corporate penalties toward targeting individual wrongdoers and revising rules he once opposed, such as those established after the 2008 financial crisis. The nomination underscores Trump’s pro-business agenda as he prepares for his second term.
Trump Selects Jared Isaacman To Head NASA
John Raoux/AP
Incoming president Donald Trump has nominated Jared Isaacman—a billionaire entrepreneur and private astronaut—to lead NASA during what could be one of the most transformative periods in the agency's history.
Over the course of Trump’s second term, NASA will face a series of critical challenges, including advancing the Artemis program, navigating the increasing commercialization of space, and potentially overseeing the de-orbiting of the International Space Station. This period is also likely to see SpaceX’s Starship launch its first commercial missions—and possibly embark on its inaugural uncrewed journey to Mars.
Isaacman, founder and CEO of the payment processing platform Shift4, is a prominent advocate for commercial space exploration. Through his Polaris Program initiative, he has sponsored two SpaceX-led missions to orbit. During the most recent mission in September, Isaacman and a fellow crew member performed the first private spacewalk using SpaceX’s newly developed extravehicular activity suits.
President Biden Pardons Son Hunter Biden
President Joe Biden in an official Whitehouse release pardoned his son Hunter Biden. In what amounts to a reversal of opinion the full pardon spares Hunter Biden from a possible prison sentence for Federal felony gun and tax convictions.
Kash Patel tapped as FBI Director
President elect Trump selected Kash Patel, a Trump loyalist, to head the FBI. The move is seen as an attempt to move out the current FBI Director Christopher Wray before the end of his 10 year term in favor of Patel who has vowed to upend the nations premier law enforcement agency.
Patel’s confirmation by the Senate could prove problematic for Trump who would be firing Wray whom he appointed as FBI Director during his first term. The confirmation of Patel would be what Trump hopes is an upheaval of an agency he has consistently spared.
Trump Selects Trade Representative
The President elect selected Jamieson Greer to serve as his trade representative. The position is of increasing importance with Trump planning to reset trade worldwide.
Greer, a former Air Force attorney, and veteran who served in Iraq, subsequently served as chief of staff for the trade representative during Trump’s first administration. During that stint he was instrumental in negotiating with China.
The position of trade representative has traditionally been low profile but took on greater significance during Trump’s first term in the Whitehouse.
🧠 WORD OF THE DAY
Pivot
A fundamental change in a business strategy to adapt to internal metrics, market demands, or challenges facing the enterprise.
THE GRIND FACTORY ⚙️
DIGITAL MARKETING FOR SMALL BUSINESS ⚙️
Digital Marketing a seven week series on everything digital marking in a step by step process to help entrepreneurs formulate a digital marketing strategy.
Entrepreneur Series- Week #3
Digital Marketing For Small Business
This week in the Digital Marketing Series we’re looking at Affiliate Marketing. What is it and why should you consider using affiliate marketing? We will answer these questions over the remaining days this week.
Affiliate marketing is a performance based marketing strategy where individuals or businesses, the affiliates, promote your company’s offerings to earn a fee, normally a commission, on each sale or action that is generated through their actions.
On the technical side affiliates use unique tracking links that, duh, track their actions across your companies product or service offerings so they are credited when a customer they brought into your business makes a purchase or takes the desired action.
There are six (6) steps for best case uses of affiliate marketing for growth. We cover two each day this week.
Select The Right Affiliate Network: #2
Research Networks: Who you work with and how they operate will matter on the success your affiliate program. (While outside of the scope of this weeks lesson keep a look out for an Affiliate Marketing primer early next year.)
Evaluate Their Features: Look for features that simplify your affiliate program like tracking capabilities, reporting, and service support that will help in managing your affiliate program.
Identify Goals: #1
Define Objectives: What do you aim to achieve with your affiliate marketing, increased sales, broader brand awareness, or expanding a customer base; marketing to women instead of just men.
KPI’s Matter: You must measure what matters to find success so establishing key performance indicators is a critical component in affiliate marketing (any marketing). KPI’s help you measure conversion rates, average order value, and ROI’s.
Tomorrow we will cover the last two (of six) steps for best case uses of affiliate marketing for growth.
📚 BOOK OF THE WEEK
There is a service maxim “underpromise overdeliver” and this book details why that maxim holds true. Will Guidara took a 2 star Brasserie to being named the Best Restaurant on the planet. If you’re in business Will explains why your business should act like its in the hospitality business.
This Book has a 4.4⭐️ rating on goodreads.
UNIQUELY INTERESTING
💡 Epiphany Moments
A simple idea and a small investment create an interesting service behemoth.
In 1989 a 19 year old waiting in line at a McDonald’s drive thru in Vancouver, BC noticed a sign on the side of a beat up truck “junk removal”. Inspired Brian Scudamore came up with the thought that he could do better. Scudamore took $1,000 and started Rubbish Boys.
The investment amounted to the purchase of a $700 F-100 pickup truck with the remaining 30% spent on marketing materials. His goal was to create a professional and efficient junk removal service. The business gained traction and by years end he was able to pay his college tuition.
The company continued to enjoy success and grow then in 1998 rebranded into the well known 1-800-GOT-JUNK. Today the company operates in multiple countries and has become a leader in the junk removal business.
🍎 One Smart Apple
The Rise of Raising Cane’s: from a C- College Grade to Global Success
Way back in 1996, Todd Graves turned a dismissed idea into a global fast food phenomenon. He partnered with friend Craig Silvey and together they envisioned a restaurant centered around a single menu item; chicken fingers.
Their idea was so brilliant that when they submitted their business plan as part of an in-class project at Louisiana State University they received a C- on the submission.
Committed to the idea Graves worked long hours at an oil refinery and fished for sockey salmon in Alaska. He eventually secured enough money and a small loan to open the first Raising Cane’s Chicken Fingers near LSU’s campus in Baton Rouge. Name after Graves yellow Labrador, the restaurant quickly drew crowds with simple, but high quality menu of chicken fingers, fries, coleslaw, and Texas toast.
Success was a ways off, and Silvey sold his stake after the second location opened 😩
Graves believed gravely in the restaurant and pressed on. Cane’s early focus on consistency and excellence has paid off. Today, Raising Canes has 800 locations worldwide, with a continuous philosophy of doing one thing really well.
What started as a passion project has become a line inducing location sparse fast food icon. Proving perseverance and simplicity are a winning recipe for success🍏
HEALTH & LONGEVITY
Abdominal Fat Increases Early Death Risk By 365% In Non-Obease
Luis Alvarez/Getty Images
Researchers in Italy and Slovenia found that a larger waistline correlates with a 365% increase in the risk of death.
Key Findings:
New Measurement: the study used a body shape index (ABSI) which considers waist circumference, weight, and height, unlike traditional BMI.
Study Participants: 159 elderly, non-obese, physically active adults, with 50% being smokers and 30% having high blood pressure.
Health Indicators: lower ABSI scores were linked to better cardiovascular fitness (VO2 Max) and lower blood pressure.
Mortality Rates: Over a 10 year period participants with higher ABSI scores had a significantly higher mortality rate.
Mitigating Risk:
Senolytics: compounds that remove senescent cells may reduce the age accelerating effects of abdominal fat.
Polyphenols: Naturally occurring senolytics found in plant based foods may help combat inflammation associated with excess abdominal fat.
This study underscores the importance of managing abdominal fat to improve longevity even in non-obese individuals.
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